Frequently asked questions and methodology notes
The Bureau of Musk Temporal Standards is a satirical institution dedicated to translating Elon Musk's time estimates into their real-world equivalents. We were founded in 2015, the same year Elon first promised Full Self-Driving would be complete "by the end of next year."
Our mission is simple: when Elon says a timeframe, we tell you what it actually means. We do this not with malice, but with the dry resignation of people who have been tracking the same promises for a decade.
Across 68 documented cases, Elon Musk's time estimates have been off by an average factor of 11.2×. This means that when he says something will take 1 month, you should expect it to take approximately 11 months. When he says 1 year, expect roughly 11 years.
This is not unique to Elon — research in cognitive psychology has documented "optimism bias" and the "planning fallacy" as universal human tendencies. What makes Elon's case notable is the scale of the promises, the public nature of the statements, and the fact that many of them were made to investors and regulators, not just fans.
The Bureau notes that the 11.2× figure is a conservative estimate. The 31 permanently unresolved cases are assigned only a 20× multiplier. If those cases are truly never resolved, the actual average would be significantly higher. The Bureau prefers not to think about this.